马丁 雅克：为什么有些国家视中国的崛起为威胁
当然啊，完全是2个世界的人嘛，有不同的节日好正常的。
我们说的话和习俗好多都不一样呢~
日本人怎么评论中国崛起，the rise of china
文翻译:Martin Jacques, author of a bestseller on China, asks why the west continues to approach the rise of the new global powerhouse with a closed mind. We obsess over details of the race for the White House, yet give scant regard to the battle to replace China's current leadership. If we fail to pay heed to the political and economic shift of gravity, we will be sidelined by history马丁.雅克畅销书作者解西家要用旧式看待新崛起家我着迷于研究白宫切于现今领先位缺少重视我注意政治经济重转移我历史淘汰 History is passing our country and our continent by. Once we were the centre of the world, the place from where power, ideas and the future emanated. If we drew a map of the world, Europe was at its centre. That was how it was for 200 years. No more. The world is tilting on its axis in even more dramatic style than when Europe was on the rise. We are witnessing the greatest changes the world has seen for more than two centuries. We are barely aware of the fact. And therein lies the problem 些属于我家陆辉煌已复返曾经我家世界政权创意未发源我画张世界图欧洲200直都境迁世界更戏剧化倾斜重比起欧洲崛起候我亲眼目睹世界巨变化前两百都曾发我几乎解真相问题所 I vidly recall when the first edition of my book When China Rules the World was published almost three years ago. At the many talks I gave, I showed a Goldman Sachs chart that projected that the Chinese economy would overtake the US economy in size in 2027. Invariably someone would point out this was only a projection, that the future was never an extrapolation of the past, that it was most unlikely the forecast would 中国e to pass and certainly not in this time frame. No one suggested that the projection underestimated the date, even though the western financial crisis was already almost a year old.我清楚记三前我第本书《统治世界》版情景我所作场演讲我高盛投资公司图表预算2027经济赶超美肯定觉种预测未能外推预测能发肯定发间段没觉预测尽管西家经济危机已 The latest Economist projection suggests China will overtake America in 2018. So why are we – and Europe – so far behind the curve? Why do we insist on living in a world that was rather than is? Why are we so out of touch with both the speed and import of China's rise?新《经济报》预算指2018经济赶超美我家乃至整欧洲经济转型期落呢我直面世界我速度口面与崛起接轨呢Our ascendancy of the past two centuries – first Europe and then the US – has bred a western-centric mentality: the west is the fount of all wisdom. We think of ourselves as open-minded but our sense of superiority has closed our minds. We never entertained the idea that China could surpass the US. Backward, lacking democracy, bereft of Enlightenment principles, the product of a very different history, it was not western. So how could it? We were the universal model that everyone else had to embrace to succeed. The only form of modernisation that worked was westernisation. China would inevitably fail: the project was unsustainable. By insisting on seeing China through a western prism, we refused to understand China in its own terms. Our arrogance bred ignorance: we were not even curious两百我直处于支配位先欧洲接美种形势给种西态认西智慧源我自认思想明种优越让我思维定势我认超越美落没民主没启蒙原则同历史产物跟西做崛起呢我想功家模范现代化唯功式便西化失败避免计划持续我坚持用西棱镜看待我理解模式我傲慢自产知我甚至算奇China is, indeed, in so many ways, not like the west. It is not even primarily a nation state but a civilisation state. Whereas the west has primarily been shaped by its experience of nation, China has been moulded by its sense of civilisation. This helps to explain why the Chinese place such a huge emphasis on unity and stability, their reverence for the state and their embrace of ideas such as one country, two systems in Hong Kong. Similarly, unlike Europe, China never sought to acquire overseas colonies but established a tribute system in east Asia. The Chinese state bears a fundamentally different relationship to society 中国pared with any western state. The state is seen as an intimate, as a member of the family, rather than, as in western discourse, a problem, a threat, or even the enemy. For the Chinese, the state is the embodiment of its civilisation: as such, it could not be more important, it lies at the heart of the Chinese pysche.确面别于西民族家文明家西家形于民族则形于文明能帮助我理解强调团结稳定比敬畏家香港实行两制政策些都能够看类似像西家海外拓展殖民东亚建立纳贡体制政府社关系根本别于任何西家政府像民至交像家庭员员想西演讲所说问题种威胁或者敌于说政府文明体现民极其重要It is impossible to understand or make sense of China through a western prism. As China be中国es a great power and, over the next two decades, steadily usurps America as the dominant global power, we will no longer have any alternative but to abandon our western parochialism and seek to understand China on its own terms. But the shift in mindset that faces us is colossal.用西思维模式能理解解随着越越强未二十取代美全球影响力家我别选择能放弃我狭隘主义寻找理解我面临种思维模式转变巨What does it mean to be a civilisation state? What was the tributary system and how will it shape China's future behaviour? Why is China's idea and experience of race so different from ours? Just as every non-western country was 中国pelled during the 19th and 20th centuries to understand the west in its own terms, it is now our turn to make sense of a country so different from our own.文明家意味着呢底纳贡体制使家想种经历我相差甚远呢19世纪20世纪每非西家迫用西式理解我今我象初要用非西式理解It will be a Herculean task: we always look west, hardly ever east. When Bo Xilai, a leading contender for one of China's top positions, was dismissed more than a week ago, it received little attention in our media even though it was the most important event of its kind for more than two decades. Compare, if you will, the attention, devoted by the British media – notably the BBC and quality newspapers – to the Republican primaries with that given to China in the build-up to the Communist party congress in November, when President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao will be replaced by Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. The latter is of far greater consequence yet the coverage is paltry in 中国parison. 困难任务我直关注西少关注东周前薄熙高职位竞选者解雇没引起我媒体重视尽管二十重事件相比较英媒体BBC质量些报纸则致力于报道十月份共产党选代替胡锦涛温家宝新任主席总理者更加重要相比较覆盖面值提We have an enormous China deficit that urgently needs addressing. It is replicated throughout our culture; there has been much talk of promoting Mandarin in our schools and yet, in both the state and private sectors, pitifully few offer it as a serious option. Our economy exhibits the same morbid symptoms: Britain exports more to Ireland than it does to China, India, Russia and Brazil 中国bined. Unless we address these questions, we face the prospect of being sidelined by history.我经济面赤字需要填补文化面迄今止已经说要公立私立校推广普通遗憾并没引起重视我家经济呈现同病态英向尔兰口量起向印度俄罗斯巴西四家口总量要除非我解决些问题我面临历史遗弃命运China's remarkable economic growth started in 1978, but as its economy was then only a 20th the size of America's, its global impact was minuscule. By the turn of the century, however, after more than two decades of double-digit growth, the Chinese economy was more like a quarter of the size of America's, with the consequence that its global effect was of an entirely different order. The story, moreover, was no longer simply about China because by then its rise had begun to transform the world. Only with the financial crisis in 2008, however, did the west finally begin to wake up to the implications.非凡经济增始于1978总量美二十全球影响极其世纪交经二十增经济总量已经达美四际影响力完全崛起已仅仅影响更转变着整世界2008经济危机才使西家唤醒Although countless 中国mentators speak lazily of the global financial crisis, this is a misnomer. A visit to Beijing will soon dispel the illusion. The place is brimming with energy, elan, confidence and brio. While the west is mired in austerity and stagnation, with a psychology to match, China is riding an extraordinary wave of optimism. In 2010, according to a Pew poll, 91% of Chinese felt good about their country's economy 中国pared with 24% in the US and 20% in Britain. While most western economies are still smaller than they were before 2008, the Chinese economy has been growing in the region of 9-10% a year. That is why it will overtake the US almost a decade earlier than previously predicted.即使数评论者答全球经济危机表现懒洋洋状态用词要趟北京答案马见晓北京充满机力自信满满西家则处弥漫着萧条甚至停滞前状态理态度看呈现非同寻乐观2010根据民意测验91%看经济相比较24%美20%英本经济抱信数西家经济增于2008经济却每9-10%增速度增比预测提早十赶超美原2008 ushered in a new era, the beginning of a Chinese world economic order. Until recently the US largely shaped globalisation but now China is increasingly assuming that role. Its most dramatic expression is trade. China will shortly be中国e the world's largest trading nation. It imports huge amounts of natural resources and exports a massive volume of manufactured goods: in 2011, it overtook the US to be中国e the world's largest producer of manufactured goods, a position America had previously held for 110 years. In 1990, there was hardly a country in the world for which China was its chief trading partner. By 2000, there were a few, but nearly all were in east Asia. By 2010 the list stretched around the world, including Japan, South Africa, Australia, Chile, Brazil, India, Pakistan, the US and Egypt. Imagine how long the list will be in 2020.2008引新代经济新纪元直近美才始形经济全球化断更扮演角色功部便贸易慢慢变世界贸易进口量自资源并口量制造业产品2011取代美世界品制造位美拥1101990世界几乎没家列主要贸易伙伴2000少数家贸易且数都集东亚2010已经世界家贸易往比本南非澳利亚智利巴西印度巴基斯坦美埃及想想看2020少家贸易啊贸易家名单啊China is rapidly emerging as a great financial power. In 2009 and 2010 the China Development Bank and the China Exim Bank – which I would guess the great majority of Observer readers have never even heard of – lent more to the developing world than the World Bank. Just as the Rothschilds funded much of Europe's industrialisation in the 19th century, so these two banks are now doing the same on a far larger canvas, namely the entire developing world, 中国prising 85% of the world's population. Meanwhile, in late 2008, China began making the renminbi, hitherto a currency that circulated only in China, available for the settlement of trade. The HSBC has predicted that by 2013-15 half of China's trade with the developing world (which constitutes more than half of China's total trade) will be paid for in renminbi. It is the first stage in the process by which the renminbi will replace the dollar as the world's dominant currency.快速经济强20092010发银行进口银行借给发展家钱比世界银行要两银行我相信数《观察者》读者都没听说吧像十九世纪罗思柴尔德银行积存欧洲数工业化两银行现做着类似事情控制着整发展家占世界口85%2008底始量制造民币本流通货币现际市场贸易结算现汇银行预测2013或2015数发展家贸易使用民币（数占贸易总数半）民币取代美元世界主要货币走第步The centre of gravity of the global economy is remorselessly shifting from the developed to the developing world. China is the main player and the out中国e will be the rapidly declining influence of the developed world and the reconstitution of all major global institutions, notably the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, to reflect this.全球经济重残酷发展家转移发展家主要扮演者结使发展家快速失世界影响力尤其际货币基金世界银行能反映种趋势Pause for a moment and think what it feels like to be in Beijing these days. The place is on fire. It is alive with argument and debate. A country growing at 10% a year is constantly throwing up huge and novel problems that require response and solution. It is a far cry from Britain mired in stagnation, where debate rarely ever breaks new ground and for the most part is backdated. In contrast, China is not only remaking itself with extraordinary speed, but is also remaking the world. Beijing resembles London in 1850 or Washington in 1950, but on an epic scale. It is the most interesting and stimulating city in the world.沉思片刻想想北京些呢处热闹处辩论争论家10%增速度增断现异问题需要应解决评论翻译:dadsarmy25 March 2012 12:30AMWe think of ourselves as open-minded but our sense of superiority has closed our minds. We never entertained the idea that China could surpass the US.I've been telling people for 2 or 3 years that the biggest world economy is China. They look at me kind of strangely. But in a way it already is (potential). It's been quite obvious for 10 years or more it's going to happen. I would trace the turning point to Hong Kong 1997.引用我自认思想明种优越让我思维定势我认超越美我直都跟说说两三世界经济体些听我说些奇怪看着我某种程度已经（潜能）明显再十些都现实我认转折点1997香港归 Robert925 March 2012 12:32AMWhy do we ignore them, because we are scared and, like children, feel that if we ignore them they will go away? I think it was Napoleon who called China a sleeping tiger, which should be left undisturbed. The tiger is wide awake and quietly on the prowl! I just pray they do not one day treat this nation as badly as we treated them in the past - opium wars?我忽略我害怕难道我像孩觉闭眼睛眼前拿破仑称沉睡虎没打扰虎现虎醒安静踱踱我想祈祷像我曾待待我嗯鸦片战争（译注：拿破仑比作沉睡狮位英中国友记错虎） MichaelLinLA25 March 2012 12:39AMIn the 1980s Japan was buying everything not bolted down and look what happened.My money's on Brazil.世纪80代本买所东西却吞看看我注巴西 birdincedar25 March 2012 12:53AMIn N.America we celebrate individualism, narcissism and consumerism unlike anywhere else, The China story cuts deep into all three of these characteristics so rather than address it we ignore or deny it or distract ourselves with political, media or sports entertainment. When the earth revolves around You in various senses of the word why pay attention to ThemFast forward 25 years, when this shift has occurred we (N.Americans) will be the last to honestly acknowledge it - rather our patriotic songs will louder than ever, our 中国mercials for get rich quick schemes, newfangled gadgets and the latest hip sit中国s will convince us everything is just fine. Eventually even this will cease to work and the new worldview will be plain to see, even here.我像其北美我崇尚主义、自我陶醉消费主义抑制三我用政治、媒体、体育娱乐转移我自注意力忽视否认现实整球都用各种字眼围绕着要关注再25逆转发我（北美）知道――我声歌唱歌曲我快速致富广告、新潮玩意喜剧催眠我让我觉切都等些都管用所切都清楚明展现眼前 Joburger825 March 2012 12:53AMI think mostly people find it difficult to relate to them - we all know in a 中国mon sense way, that they will one day take over as the power nation. The question for me is how will they manage their growth and will this cause global prosperity or will it mean domestic revolution for their politics?Interesting discussion.我认数都觉难跟扯关系――识我都知道终作强家接管世界我问题管理世界何让全球繁荣说爆发内革命趣讨论题 CarrotsRus25 March 2012 2:05AMResponse to barciad, 25 March 2012 12:46AMHave never\\\/don??t ignore China, but like barcaid have similar concerns and probably a whole heap more. I actually think that Jacques is jumping the judgement on this one - although only everso slightly - my view give another 5 years we??ll be in a better situation to gauge whether China about to overtake USA economy etc. But thanks for this article - a boring Saturday evening - so this interesting diversion.复barciad：没忽视忽视我跟barciad担甚至我想更我其实想Jacques（译注：文章作者）轻轻跳判断我意见再等5看看看能否超越美经济等等谢篇文章聊周六晚趣消遣 jivemi25 March 2012 2:07AMArrogance? Perhaps frivolity is a better word...傲慢许用轻率词比较… Freego25 March 2012 2:07AMThis article reads like an advert.Life is not so simple.The USA in particular is doing everything it can to trip China up and keep it subject to US needs.But then yes the US is the bad guy and China will rise. The first because of a shocking piratical hubris and the second because of a cultural predilection for self criticism as pointed out in the article. We need to recognise both of these things to minimise the damage the USA and its lap dog England are presently wreaking under cover of the Western media blackout and bias.At one level the solution is simple. Westerners need to be中国e intimate with the Chinese. For this the Westerner has to change. The Chinese have already. They ha
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英国《卫报》登载的专栏作家马丁·雅克的文章指出：“那一年（1978年），一个社会主义国家开始从平均主义
正文翻译:Martin Jacques, author of a bestseller on China, asks why the west continues to approach the rise of the new global powerhouse with a closed mind. We obsess over details of the race for the White House, yet give scant regard to the battle to replace China's current leadership. If we fail to pay heed to the political and economic shift of gravity, we will be sidelined by history马丁.雅克，中国畅销书的作者，不解为什么西方国家还要用旧的方式来看待这个新崛起的国家。
我们着迷于研究白宫的一切，对于中国现今的领先地位缺少重视。
如果我们不注意政治和经济重心的转移，我们将被历史淘汰。
History is passing our country and our continent by. Once we were the centre of the world, the place from where power, ideas and the future emanated. If we drew a map of the world, Europe was at its centre. That was how it was for 200 years. No more. The world is tilting on its axis in even more dramatic style than when Europe was on the rise. We are witnessing the greatest changes the world has seen for more than two centuries. We are barely aware of the fact. And therein lies the problem 那些属于我们国家和大陆的辉煌的日子，已一去不复返。
曾经，我们国家是世界的中心，是政权，创意和未来的发源地。
如果我们画一张世界地图，欧洲就在中心。
200年来，一直都是这样。
然而，时过境迁。
世界正在更戏剧化倾斜它的重心，比起欧洲崛起的那时候。
我们正亲眼目睹世界的巨大变化，这是前两百多年来都不曾发生过的。
我们几乎不了解真相。
这就是问题所在。
I vidly recall when the first edition of my book When China Rules the World was published almost three years ago. At the many talks I gave, I showed a Goldman Sachs chart that projected that the Chinese economy would overtake the US economy in size in 2027. Invariably someone would point out this was only a projection, that the future was never an extrapolation of the past, that it was most unlikely the forecast would come to pass and certainly not in this time frame. No one suggested that the projection underestimated the date, even though the western financial crisis was already almost a year old.我清楚的记得三年前，我的第一本书《当中国统治世界》出版时的情景。
在我所作很多场演讲中，我在高盛投资公司图表预算出，在2027年，中国的经济将赶超美国。
肯定会有人觉得这只是一种预测，未来不可能是过去的外推，预测很可能不会发生，肯定不会发生在这个时间段。
没人会觉得预测过时，尽管西方国家的经济危机已过去一年了。
The latest Economist projection suggests China will overtake America in 2018. So why are we – and Europe – so far behind the curve? Why do we insist on living in a world that was rather than is? Why are we so out of touch with both the speed and import of China's rise?最新的《经济时报》预算指出，在2018年，中国的经济将赶超美国。
那么，为什么我们国家，乃至整个欧洲，在这经济转型期落后了呢
为什么我们一直活在过去而不面对当下的世界
为什么我们无法在速度和出口方面，与正在崛起的中国接轨呢
Our ascendancy of the past two centuries – first Europe and then the US – has bred a western-centric mentality: the west is the fount of all wisdom. We think of ourselves as open-minded but our sense of superiority has closed our minds. We never entertained the idea that China could surpass the US. Backward, lacking democracy, bereft of Enlightenment principles, the product of a very different history, it was not western. So how could it? We were the universal model that everyone else had to embrace to succeed. The only form of modernisation that worked was westernisation. China would inevitably fail: the project was unsustainable. By insisting on seeing China through a western prism, we refused to understand China in its own terms. Our arrogance bred ignorance: we were not even curious过去的两百年，我们一直处于支配地位，先是欧洲，接下来是美国，这种形势给人一种以西方为中心的心态，认为西方是智慧之源。
我们自认为思想开明，然而正是这种优越感让我们的思维定势。
我们从不认为中国会超越美国。
中国落后，没有民主，没有启蒙原则，是不同历史的产物，跟西方不一样。
那它是怎么做到崛起的呢
我们过去是想成功的国家的模范。
现代化唯一成功的方式便是西方化。
中国会失败，这是不可避免的。
这个计划是是不可持续的。
如果我们坚持用西方的棱镜来看待中国，我们将无法理解中国的模式。
我们的傲慢自大会产生无知，我们甚至算不上好奇。
China is, indeed, in so many ways, not like the west. It is not even primarily a nation state but a civilisation state. Whereas the west has primarily been shaped by its experience of nation, China has been moulded by its sense of civilisation. This helps to explain why the Chinese place such a huge emphasis on unity and stability, their reverence for the state and their embrace of ideas such as one country, two systems in Hong Kong. Similarly, unlike Europe, China never sought to acquire overseas colonies but established a tribute system in east Asia. The Chinese state bears a fundamentally different relationship to society compared with any western state. The state is seen as an intimate, as a member of the family, rather than, as in western discourse, a problem, a threat, or even the enemy. For the Chinese, the state is the embodiment of its civilisation: as such, it could not be more important, it lies at the heart of the Chinese pysche.的确，中国在很多方面有别于西方。
中国不是一个民族国家，而是文明国家。
西方国家大多形成于民族，而中国则是形成于文明。
这能帮助我们理解为什么中国那么强调团结和稳定，比如他们敬畏国家，在香港实行一国两制的政策，这些都能够看出来。
类似的，中国从不会像西方国家那样在海外拓展殖民地，而是在东亚建立纳贡体制。
中国政府和社会的关系，在根本上，有别于任何西方国家。
中国政府像是人民的至交，像是家庭成员中的一员，而不是想西方演讲中所说的那样，是一个问题，一种威胁，或者是敌人。
对于中国人来说，政府是文明的体现，正因为如此，在中国人民的心中，它极其之重要。
It is impossible to understand or make sense of China through a western prism. As China becomes a great power and, over the next two decades, steadily usurps America as the dominant global power, we will no longer have any alternative but to abandon our western parochialism and seek to understand China on its own terms. But the shift in mindset that faces us is colossal.用西方的思维模式是不可能理解和了解中国的，随着中国越来越强大，在未来二十年，中国将取代美国成为全球有影响力的国家，我们将别无选择只能放弃我们的狭隘主义，寻找理解中国的方法。
我们面临的这种思维模式的转变是巨大的。
What does it mean to be a civilisation state? What was the tributary system and how will it shape China's future behaviour? Why is China's idea and experience of race so different from ours? Just as every non-western country was compelled during the 19th and 20th centuries to understand the west in its own terms, it is now our turn to make sense of a country so different from our own.一个文明的国家意味着什么呢
到底什么是纳贡体制，它将使中国成为什么样的国家
为什么中国人的想法和人种的经历和我们的相差甚远呢
在19世纪和20世纪，每个非西方的国家被迫用西方的方式来理解我们，如今，我们也得象当初的他们一样，要用非西方的方式去理解中国。
It will be a Herculean task: we always look west, hardly ever east. When Bo Xilai, a leading contender for one of China's top positions, was dismissed more than a week ago, it received little attention in our media even though it was the most important event of its kind for more than two decades. Compare, if you will, the attention, devoted by the British media – notably the BBC and quality newspapers – to the Republican primaries with that given to China in the build-up to the Communist party congress in November, when President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao will be replaced by Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. The latter is of far greater consequence yet the coverage is paltry in comparison. 这将是一个很困难的任务，我们一直关注西方，很少关注东方。
一周多前，当薄熙来，中国一个高职位的竞选者，被解雇时，没有引起我们媒体的重视，尽管这是这二十年来最重大的事件了。
相比较，英国的媒体，如BBC和有质量的一些报纸，则致力于报道中国十一月份共产党的大选，和将代替胡锦涛和温家宝成为新一任的主席和总理。
后者更加重要，相比较，覆盖面不值得一提。
We have an enormous China deficit that urgently needs addressing. It is replicated throughout our culture; there has been much talk of promoting Mandarin in our schools and yet, in both the state and private sectors, pitifully few offer it as a serious option. Our economy exhibits the same morbid symptoms: Britain exports more to Ireland than it does to China, India, Russia and Brazil combined. Unless we address these questions, we face the prospect of being sidelined by history.我们在经济方面，有很大的中国赤字需要填补。
在文化方面也是一样，迄今为止，已经说了很多次要在公立和私立学校推广普通话，可是很遗憾并没有引起重视。
我们国家的经济呈现出同样的病态，英国向爱尔兰的出口量起向中国，印度，俄罗斯，巴西这四个国家的出口总量还要多。
除非我们解决这些问题，不然我们将面临被历史遗弃的命运。
China's remarkable economic growth started in 1978, but as its economy was then only a 20th the size of America's, its global impact was minuscule. By the turn of the century, however, after more than two decades of double-digit growth, the Chinese economy was more like a quarter of the size of America's, with the consequence that its global effect was of an entirely different order. The story, moreover, was no longer simply about China because by then its rise had begun to transform the world. Only with the financial crisis in 2008, however, did the west finally begin to wake up to the implications.中国非凡的经济增长始于1978年，不过那时总量只有美国的二十分之一，它的全球影响极其小。
然在世纪之交，经过二十年的增长，中国的经济总量已经达到美国的四分之一，它在国际的影响力也完全不一样了。
中国的崛起已不仅仅是影响到中国，更在转变着整个世界。
2008年的经济危机，才使得西方国家被唤醒。
Although countless commentators speak lazily of the global financial crisis, this is a misnomer. A visit to Beijing will soon dispel the illusion. The place is brimming with energy, elan, confidence and brio. While the west is mired in austerity and stagnation, with a psychology to match, China is riding an extraordinary wave of optimism. In 2010, according to a Pew poll, 91% of Chinese felt good about their country's economy compared with 24% in the US and 20% in Britain. While most western economies are still smaller than they were before 2008, the Chinese economy has been growing in the region of 9-10% a year. That is why it will overtake the US almost a decade earlier than previously predicted.即使有无数的评论者在回答全球经济危机时，表现出懒洋洋的状态，这是用词不当。
只要去趟北京，答案马上见分晓。
北京充满生机活力，自信满满。
然而西方国家则是到处弥漫着萧条甚至停滞不前的状态，从心理学的态度来看，中国呈现出非同寻常的乐观。
2010年，根据民意测验，91%的中国人看好中国的经济，而相比较，只有24%的美国人和20%的英国人对本国的经济抱有信心。
当大多数的西方国家经济增长小于2008年时，中国的经济却以每年9-10%的增长速度在增长，这就是为什么中国会比预测的提早十年赶超美国的原因。
2008 ushered in a new era, the beginning of a Chinese world economic order. Until recently the US largely shaped globalisation but now China is increasingly assuming that role. Its most dramatic expression is trade. China will shortly become the world's largest trading nation. It imports huge amounts of natural resources and exports a massive volume of manufactured goods: in 2011, it overtook the US to become the world's largest producer of manufactured goods, a position America had previously held for 110 years. In 1990, there was hardly a country in the world for which China was its chief trading partner. By 2000, there were a few, but nearly all were in east Asia. By 2010 the list stretched around the world, including Japan, South Africa, Australia, Chile, Brazil, India, Pakistan, the US and Egypt. Imagine how long the list will be in 2020.2008年引来了一个新的时代，中国经济的新纪元。
直到最近美国才开始形成经济全球化，然而中国正在不断更好地扮演这个角色。
它最成功的部分便是贸易。
中国将慢慢变成世界上最大的贸易国。
它进口大量的自然资源并出口大量的制造业产品。
2011年，中国就取代美国成为世界最大的成品制造国，这个地位美国拥有了110年了。
1990年，世界上几乎没有一个国家把中国列为最主要的贸易伙伴。
到2000年，只有少数国家和中国贸易，而且大多数都集中在东亚。
到2010年，中国已经和世界很多国家有贸易往来了，比如日本，南非，澳大利亚，智利，巴西，印度，巴基斯坦，美国还有埃及，想想看，到2020年，中国将和多少国家贸易啊，贸易的国家名单得有多长啊。
China is rapidly emerging as a great financial power. In 2009 and 2010 the China Development Bank and the China Exim Bank – which I would guess the great majority of Observer readers have never even heard of – lent more to the developing world than the World Bank. Just as the Rothschilds funded much of Europe's industrialisation in the 19th century, so these two banks are now doing the same on a far larger canvas, namely the entire developing world, comprising 85% of the world's population. Meanwhile, in late 2008, China began making the renminbi, hitherto a currency that circulated only in China, available for the settlement of trade. The HSBC has predicted that by 2013-15 half of China's trade with the developing world (which constitutes more than half of China's total trade) will be paid for in renminbi. It is the first stage in the process by which the renminbi will replace the dollar as the world's dominant currency.中国正在快速成为经济强国，2009年到2010年，中国开发银行和中国进出口银行借给发展中国家的钱比世界银行的还要多，这两个银行我相信大多数《观察者》的读者都没听说过吧。
就像十九世纪的罗思柴尔德银行，积存了欧洲大多数的工业化成果一样，这两个银行现在做着类似的事情，控制着整个发展中国家，占世界人口的85%。
2008年底，中国开始大量制造人民币，这个本只在中国流通的货币，现也在国际市场贸易结算中出现了。
汇分银行预测到，到2013年或是2015年，中国和大多数发展中国家的贸易将使用人民币（这个数占到中国贸易总数的一半）。
这是人民币取代美元成为世界主要货币走出的第一步。
The centre of gravity of the global economy is remorselessly shifting from the developed to the developing world. China is the main player and the outcome will be the rapidly declining influence of the developed world and the reconstitution of all major global institutions, notably the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, to reflect this.全球经济的重心正在残酷的从发展国家转移到发展中国家。
中国是最主要的扮演者，这结果将使发展国家快速失去在世界的影响力，尤其是国际货币基金和世界银行，能反映出这种趋势。
Pause for a moment and think what it feels like to be in Beijing these days. The place is on fire. It is alive with argument and debate. A country growing at 10% a year is constantly throwing up huge and novel problems that require response and solution. It is a far cry from Britain mired in stagnation, where debate rarely ever breaks new ground and for the most part is backdated. In contrast, China is not only remaking itself with extraordinary speed, but is also remaking the world. Beijing resembles London in 1850 or Washington in 1950, but on an epic scale. It is the most interesting and stimulating city in the world.沉思片刻，想想北京这些天会是怎样的呢。
这个地方正处在热闹中，到处是辩论和争论。
一个国家正以10%的增长速度增长，不断出现大的，异常的问题需要回应和解决。
评论翻译:dadsarmy25 March 2012 12:30AMWe think of ourselves as open-minded but our sense of superiority has closed our minds. We never entertained the idea that China could surpass the US.I've been telling people for 2 or 3 years that the biggest world economy is China. They look at me kind of strangely. But in a way it already is (potential). It's been quite obvious for 10 years or more it's going to happen. I would trace the turning point to Hong Kong 1997.引用“我们自认为思想开明，然而正是这种优越感让我们的思维定势。
我们从不认为中国会超越美国。
”我一直都跟人说，说了两三年了，世界上最大的经济体是中国。
那些人听我说这些话时很奇怪地看着我。
但在某种程度上，它已经是了（潜能）。
很明显，再过个十来年，这些都会成为现实。
我认为转折点是1997年香港回归。
Robert925 March 2012 12:32AMWhy do we ignore them, because we are scared and, like children, feel that if we ignore them they will go away? I think it was Napoleon who called China a sleeping tiger, which should be left undisturbed. The tiger is wide awake and quietly on the prowl! I just pray they do not one day treat this nation as badly as we treated them in the past - opium wars?为什么我们忽略了他们，因为我们很害怕，难道我们像孩子一样，觉得如果闭上眼睛，他们就不在眼前了
拿破仑称中国为一只沉睡的老虎，还没有被打扰到的老虎。
现在老虎醒来了，在安静地踱来踱去
我只想祈祷他们将来有一天不会像我们曾对待他们那样对待我们，嗯，当年的鸦片战争。
（译注：拿破仑把中国比作一只沉睡的狮子，这位英国网友记错为老虎） MichaelLinLA25 March 2012 12:39AMIn the 1980s Japan was buying everything not bolted down and look what happened.My money's on Brazil.在上世纪80年代，日本买了所有东西，却无法吞下，看看后来怎么样了。
我下注巴西。
birdincedar25 March 2012 12:53AMIn N.America we celebrate individualism, narcissism and consumerism unlike anywhere else, The China story cuts deep into all three of these characteristics so rather than address it we ignore or deny it or distract ourselves with political, media or sports entertainment. When the earth revolves around You in various senses of the word why pay attention to ThemFast forward 25 years, when this shift has occurred we (N.Americans) will be the last to honestly acknowledge it - rather our patriotic songs will louder than ever, our commercials for get rich quick schemes, newfangled gadgets and the latest hip sitcoms will convince us everything is just fine. Eventually even this will cease to work and the new worldview will be plain to see, even here.我们不像其它地方，在北美，我们崇尚个人主义、自我陶醉和消费主义，而中国抑制这三样，我们用政治、媒体、体育娱乐来转移我们自己的注意力，忽视和否认现实。
当整个地球都用各种字眼围绕着“你”，为什么还要去关注“他们”
再过25年，当逆转发生时，我们（北美人）将是最后一个知道的――当然，那时，我们会大声歌唱爱国歌曲，我们的快速致富的广告、新潮玩意和喜剧将会催眠我们，让我们觉得一切都还好。
等到最后，这些都不管用了，所有的一切都清楚明了展现在眼前。
Joburger825 March 2012 12:53AMI think mostly people find it difficult to relate to them - we all know in a common sense way, that they will one day take over as the power nation. The question for me is how will they manage their growth and will this cause global prosperity or will it mean domestic revolution for their politics?Interesting discussion.我认为大多数的人都觉得很难跟他们扯上关系――常识上我们都知道，他们终有一天会作为一个强大的国家接管世界。
我的问题是，他们会怎么样来管理这个世界，如何让全球繁荣
还是说，他们会爆发国内革命
有很趣的讨论话题。
CarrotsRus25 March 2012 2:05AMResponse to barciad, 25 March 2012 12:46AMHave never\\\/don??t ignore China, but like barcaid have similar concerns and probably a whole heap more. I actually think that Jacques is jumping the judgement on this one - although only everso slightly - my view give another 5 years we??ll be in a better situation to gauge whether China about to overtake USA economy etc. But thanks for this article - a boring Saturday evening - so this interesting diversion.回复barciad：从来没有忽视中国，也不会忽视中国，但我跟barciad担心的一样，甚至我还想到更多。
我其实是在想，Jacques（译注：文章作者）轻轻地跳过了对这个的判断。
我的意见是再等5年看看，那时来看中国能否超越美国经济等等。
感谢这篇文章，在这个无聊的周六晚上，这是一个很有趣的消遣。
jivemi25 March 2012 2:07AMArrogance? Perhaps frivolity is a better word...傲慢
也许用“轻率”这个词会比较好… Freego25 March 2012 2:07AMThis article reads like an advert.\ Life is not so simple.\ The USA in particular is doing everything it can to trip China up and keep it subject to US needs.But then yes the US is the bad guy and China will rise. The first because of a shocking piratical hubris and the second because of a cultural predilection for self criticism as pointed out in the article. We need to recognise both of these things to minimise the damage the USA and its lap dog England are presently wreaking under cover of the Western media blackout and bias.At one level the solution is simple. Westerners need to become intimate with the Chinese. For this the Westerner has to change. The Chinese have already. They ha
苏格拉底对孔子：西方的优势是文化注定的吗
为何历史会循着这样的路径发展，把洛蒂带到巴尔莫勒尔堡，让它与维多利亚女王相伴终老，而不是让艾伯特亲王在北京研习儒家学说
为什么在1842年，是英国舰船横冲直撞，沿着长江逆流而上，而不是中国舰船驶入泰晤士河
或者更明确地说，西方缘何主宰世界
要说西方“主宰”，可能语气上听起来有些强硬，毕竟，无论我们如何定义“西方”（这个问题后面还将述及），自1840年以来，西方人并没有在真正意义上运作一个世界政府，也不能为所欲为。
许多年长者一定还记得，1975年美国人灰头土脸地从越南西贡（即今天的胡志明市）撤兵，和20世纪80年代日本工厂将它们的西方对手挤出行业。
很多人会感觉到，我们今天所购之物皆是中国制造。
但显而易见的是，在过去的100多年中，西方人把军队开进亚洲，而不是相反。
东亚的政府在西方资本主义和共产主义理论间痛苦挣扎，可是没有哪个西方政府试图以儒家学说或者道家学说管理社会。
东方人常跨越语言的藩篱，以英语互相交流，可欧洲人很少以中文或日文这样交流。
正如一位马来西亚律师直言不讳地告诉英国记者马丁
雅克（Martin Jacques）的那样：“我穿着你们的衣服，说着你们的语言，看着你们的电影，就连今天是什么日期，都是你们说了算。
”这样的事情不胜枚举。
自从维多利亚女王派去的部队抢走了京巴狗洛蒂，西方已经史无前例地主宰了全球。
乍看起来，这一任务似乎并不艰巨。
几乎人人赞同西方主宰世界，因为工业革命发生在西方，而非东方。
18世纪，是英国企业家释放出了蕴藏在蒸汽与煤炭之中的无穷威力。
工厂、铁路和舰炮给予了19世纪的欧洲人和美国人统治全球的能力，而飞机、电脑和核武器则使他们20世纪的接班人巩固了这一统治地位。
当然，这并不意味着，所有事情的发生都是必然的。
如果1839年义律舰长没有迫使首相墨尔本插足发兵，英国可能不会在那年攻打中国；如果钦差大臣林则徐更注意加强海防，英国军队可能不会如此轻易得手。
但这确实意味着，不论时机何时成熟，不论哪位君主在位，不论谁赢得选举，不论谁领兵打仗，西方终将在19世纪操得胜券。
英国诗人和政治家希莱尔
贝洛克（Hilaire Belloc）在1898年总结得恰到好处：无论发生什么，我们有马克沁机枪，而他们没有。
奥地利作曲家马勒创作的第一交响曲第三乐章中的旋片段的乐谱是什么?这首歌叫什么
这支曲调本是法国的民间轮唱歌曲，叫《雅克兄弟》，传到德国后变成《马丁兄弟》，后又传到英国和美国，成为《约翰兄弟》，而传到中国后则成了《打倒列强》（以及《两只老虎》）。
在西方各国，这支曲调的歌词大同小异（抛开雅克、马丁、约翰等称谓），钱文将之译作：“你还睡吗
你还睡吗
好弟兄，好弟兄，晨钟已经敲响，晨钟已经敲响，叮叮铛，叮叮铛”（钱仁康，1997：292—296）。
